Lagos HIV Figures Reflect Routine Testing, Not Outbreak, NMA Ex-Chair Says

A former Lagos State chairman of the Nigeria Medical Association, Babajide Saheed, has said recent interpretation of Lagos HIV figures is misleading because the data reflects routine HIV testing rather than a confirmed outbreak.

The clarification follows public discussion around figures from the State of the Health of the Nation Report 2025, which showed Lagos recording 10,430 new HIV cases in 2025.

Premium Times reported that Saheed made the clarification on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief while reacting to the report and the way the figures were being discussed.

The report showed that Lagos recorded the highest figure among Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Premium Times reported that the figure prompted questions about why Lagos still records high numbers despite years of awareness campaigns.

Saheed challenged the interpretation that the number automatically shows a fresh surge in infections. He argued that Lagos has a large testing volume and that routine screening can produce higher reported figures than states where fewer people are tested.

The Premium Times report said the clarification was meant to separate surveillance data from claims of an outbreak. The key point is that reported case numbers can rise when testing expands, even when the data does not prove a sudden new wave of transmission.

The story is important because public health figures can be misread when testing volume, population size and reporting practices are not explained alongside raw numbers.

The clarification is useful for readers because it separates routine surveillance data from claims of a sudden outbreak.

Source: Premium Times