Yiaga survey: 84% likely to vote in 2027, but 61% fear violence

A Yiaga Africa survey has found that 84 per cent of respondents are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, while 61 per cent say fear of violence could keep them away from the polls.

The National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0 was released on Wednesday. It interviewed 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in September, so the findings measure stated intentions rather than actual election turnout.

Punch reported that 2,066 interviews were conducted by telephone and 404 face to face in rural communities. It said 47 per cent of respondents were very likely to vote, a narrower measure than the combined likely-to-vote figure.

Confidence that INEC would conduct credible elections fell to 34 per cent, from 45 per cent in the previous two rounds. However, 49 per cent said they trusted BVAS accreditation and IReV results transmission.

Channels Television reported that fear of violence as a barrier rose to 78 per cent among respondents in the North-East. Across the survey, 83 per cent said improved security would make them more likely to vote.

The findings also showed that 63 per cent had little or no confidence in the judiciary’s ability to resolve election disputes fairly. That figure reached 81 per cent in the South-South.

Yiaga’s head of knowledge management and learning, Safiya Bichi, said willingness to vote was being obstructed by fear, distrust and money, and called for institutions responsible for security and electoral logistics to address those barriers.

The organisation urged the government and security agencies to publish a national election security plan, INEC to commit to prompt polling-unit results uploads, and the judiciary to resolve candidacy disputes before ballots are printed.

Sources: Channels Television, Punch