Nigeria’s oil company is getting the better end of the Middle East crisis — for now. NNPC Limited has raised the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes, with Bonny Light up $6.13 per barrel compared to April, and Forcados up $7.01 per barrel.
Bonny Light hit $124.86 per barrel on Tuesday, roughly $14 above the Brent benchmark, which itself crossed $110 per barrel as US-Iran war anxiety pushed markets higher.
What’s Behind the Surge
The driver is the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the threat it poses to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Brent futures have climbed steadily as analysts warn the war could outlast short-term ceasefire talk — a view reinforced by the breakdown of Islamabad negotiations last weekend and US President Donald Trump’s blunt dismissal of Iran’s overtures.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC the same day piled on more volatility. Two significant developments in 24 hours — war risk and a major producer leaving the cartel — gave traders enough reason to push prices sharply higher.
The Nigeria Angle
For Nigeria, this is a windfall, but not a clean one. Higher crude export prices mean more revenue and better forex inflows at a time the country genuinely needs both. But Dangote Refinery’s feedstock costs are rising alongside global prices, and that’s already flowing through to the pump. Dangote raised petrol prices by ₦75 to ₦1,275 per litre this week.
The durability of this windfall is the real question. If ceasefire talks gain traction or UAE supply floods the market post-OPEC exit, prices could give back these gains faster than they came.
Sources: Punch, Channels Television, BusinessDay, Market News Nigeria
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