Fitch changes Nigeria’s outlook to positive, keeps credit rating at B

Fitch Ratings has changed Nigeria’s long-term credit-rating outlook from stable to positive while keeping its Issuer Default Ratings at B.

The outlook change reflects Fitch’s increased confidence in the country’s policy reforms, rather than an upgrade of the rating itself. The B rating still indicates material default risk and vulnerability to deterioration in business and economic conditions.

Premium Times reported that Fitch issued the rating action on Friday. The agency cited monetary and exchange-rate reforms, greater naira flexibility, slowing inflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves.

Fitch put gross foreign-exchange reserves at $54.9 billion on September 9, 2026, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024. It attributed the improvement to more formal foreign-exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, export receipts and remittances.

The agency expects reserve coverage to reach 6.3 months of current external payments by the end of 2026 and remain above that of comparable countries in 2027 and 2028. It nevertheless identified large net errors and omissions in the external accounts as a source of uncertainty.

Fitch expects the naira to trade broadly around its current level through the end of the year. It said continued reforms should support further disinflation, although inflation is expected to remain well above peer countries.

The rating agency cited Nigeria’s large economy, relatively developed local debt market, oil and gas reserves and stronger macroeconomic policy framework as supporting factors. Restrictive monetary policy and higher oil production and refining output also featured in its assessment.

Its stated constraints include weak governance indicators, dependence on hydrocarbons, persistent inflation, security challenges and government revenue that remains low compared with peer countries.

Source: Premium Times