World Bank Revises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Prospect Downward to 4.1%

The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth prospect downward to 4.1 per cent, a 30-basis-point cut from the 4.4 per cent it projected in January.

According to Guardian and New Telegraph, the downgrade came in the bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, which also reduced the country’s 2027 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2 per cent. The report attributed the revision largely to the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.

Guardian noted that crude prices have gained over 40 per cent since the beginning of March, which could benefit Nigeria as an oil exporter. But the bank warned that longstanding structural weaknesses, including the power crisis and poor infrastructure, would continue to undermine the country’s ability to leverage the oil windfall for faster growth.

The World Bank acknowledged the Federal Government’s reforms, including exchange-rate liberalisation and improvements in public financial management, but said the benefits were being increasingly offset by external shocks from the Middle East conflict. The report also revised sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth to 4.0 per cent and warned that global growth could fall to 2.5 per cent, the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

For Nigerian policymakers, the report is a reminder that external shocks are now competing with domestic reforms, and that the global environment is unlikely to offer much support over the next two years.

Sources: Guardian; New Telegraph