Nigeria PMI Dips to 49.4 in April, First Contraction in 16 Months

Nigeria’s economy contracted in April 2026 for the first time in 16 months. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.4 — below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction — ending a run that had begun in late 2024.

The Numbers

The CBN survey, conducted April 6–10 across 1,900 business executives, showed broad-based weakness. Services PMI came in at 48.8, with 10 of 14 subsectors contracting. Industry PMI was 49.5, with 8 of 17 subsectors in the red. Agriculture was the one bright spot, posting 50.2 — the only major sector still expanding.

Across all sectors, 19 of 36 subsectors contracted in April. That’s more than half the economy moving in the wrong direction in a single month.

What Drove the Contraction

The CBN pointed to Middle East tensions as a key driver — ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global shipping costs higher and tightened oil supply chains. For Nigeria, which depends heavily on imported inputs and refined fuel, that pressure translates directly into higher production costs.

Those input cost increases are being passed to consumers. Businesses surveyed reported rising prices at the output level, adding to an already strained cost-of-living situation for ordinary Nigerians. The inflation figure for March had already come in at 15.38%, and April’s PMI data suggests price pressures are not easing.

Breaking a 16-Month Streak

The streak of above-50 PMI readings had been one of the few genuinely positive economic data points the Tinubu administration could point to. It suggested business activity was holding up even as Nigerians struggled with fuel prices, electricity costs, and the aftermath of subsidy removal.

April’s reading breaks that narrative. A single month below 50 is not a recession signal on its own — but if the global environment stays hostile and input costs keep rising, May’s PMI will be the one to watch. The agriculture sector’s resilience offers some cushion. Everything else needs attention.

Sources: Vanguard, BusinessAM Live, BusinessDay